Standard error — where it appears
Named by 21 essays across 4 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.
The error on a gap is not the errors at its ends
Comparing two rows of a table by looking at whether their error bars overlap is the wrong comparison, and here it is wrong by a factor of up to 3.4. The same 125 surfaces score both rows, so the difference between them is quieter than either — and how much quieter is a measurement of how alike the two rows are.
Four steps the test set cannot order
The adaptation census prints fourteen numbers to four figures and its ranking is asked to say which lamps adaptation handles worst. Nine of its thirteen steps are established beyond any doubt the test set can raise; the other four are not, and three of them are consecutive — a tungsten lamp, a halogen lamp and a white LED are simply not ordered.
The instrument named the pair that moved
A standard error over a test set flagged four steps of the adaptation census as unresolved. Rebuilding the set three different ways reversed exactly one pair, and it was one of the four. Rebuilding it to a different rule reversed a pair the error separated by nearly nine standard errors — which is not a failure of the instrument but a statement of what it is about.
Two instruments and one ranking
A sampling error over a hundred and twenty-five surfaces and a change of colour-difference formula share no arithmetic at all, and they were asked the same question of the same table. Every adjacency the whole menu reverses had already been flagged as unresolved. And one the test set settles at nine standard errors is reversed by four of the five formulae, which is what makes them two instruments rather than one.
Age can size the rod signal, if the lens is known
A rod signal leaking into the colour pathways has no natural size in the model: read as a fraction of each cone's own peak it shrinks as the lens yellows, read as a fixed amount it grows relative to the cones, and the two readings differ by a factor of two over a lifetime. An asymmetric match on observers of different ages can tell them apart, because they predict opposite trends: one says a weight fitted at seventy-five will look sixty per cent larger than at thirty-two, the other says it will not move. A handful of observers per age would show it. But a lens mistaken by ten years looks like forty per cent of the weight, and a tenth of an optical density of macular pigment as much again, so the experiment is only as good as what it knows of each eye's lens and macula.
The matches carry their own lens
A lens mistaken by ten years moves a colour match as far as half the rod signal being measured, and a tenth of an optical density of macular pigment as far again, so an experiment on the rod signal looked as if it needed a densitometer for every observer. It does not. Across a family of surfaces the three move the matches in different patterns, and one session of forty-two settings fits all three together — the lens to within a year and a quarter, better than a densitometer was asked for. The price is the weight's precision, and a second pair of lamps nearly removes it.
A lens of the wrong shape lands in the macula
One session of colour matches can fit an observer's rod signal, lens and macular pigment together — but it fits a lens of the model's shape, one exponential in wavelength scaled by age, and a real lens need not be that shape. Give a sixty-year-old a lens with the right density at 400 nm and its edge ten nanometres off, and the fit puts the error mostly in the macula, moves the rod signal's weight by six tenths of its standard error — six times the predicted tenth — and leaves a misfit the session cannot see. A second lamp pair makes it worse: 3.5 standard errors. Fitting the edge as a fourth number removes the bias, costs the weight three to fourteen per cent, and finds the edge.
A band in the lens reads as age or as macula
A lens whose absorption edge is steeper or shallower than the model's biases a matching session's fit, and fitting the edge's position repairs it. An ageing lens also grows bands: yellow pigments that add a shoulder of absorption just past 400 nanometres. The edge parameter takes none of one. A tenth of an optical density centred at 410 to 430 nm is read as four to six years of extra lens age; centred at 440 to 460, as three to ten hundredths of macular pigment. Either way the rod signal's fitted weight moves, by up to 1.4 of its standard errors in one session and 1.8 in two, and the session's misfit stays within its noise. The lens model has to carry the band, or the experiment has to state what it does not know.
A dimmer session hides a lens band in the rods
A band of extra absorption in an older lens is read by a colour-matching session as lens age or as macular pigment, and it pulls the fitted rod weight with it. The rods see the lens and not the macula, so a dimmer session, where they carry a third of the signal instead of a tenth, was predicted to tell the band from the macula. It does the opposite. With the band at 450 nm left out of the fit, the rod weight's shift grows from 1.7 of its standard errors to 2.5, the misfit a session could notice shrinks by a third, and the macula and the band trade more tightly. The rods see the band — and the rod weight, which the fit is free to move, is exactly what absorbs it. What separates the band from the macula is fitting its amplitude as a fourth number, which works in daylight already.
A second lamp pair finds a lens band's centre
A band of extra absorption in an older lens is found by a colour-matching fit only if the fit has a parameter for it, and a band parameter at a fixed wavelength finds only a band near that wavelength. Freeing the band's centre as a fifth number asks whether the matches can place it. From one daylight-against-LED session they place a band above 430 nm to within six nanometres and one below it only to eight to twelve, where moving the band and ageing the lens change the matches together — and there they barely see the band at all. A second session, the LED against a three-emitter lamp, places every centre within five and a half nanometres. The fluorescent tube's line at 436 nm helps where it sits and nowhere else.
A lost lens band goes to age or the macula
Two colour-matching sessions determine the centre of a band of extra absorption in an older lens to about five nanometres, if a fit can find it. Fitted in full from eight starts across 400 to 470 nm on twenty simulated experiments, two sessions find a band at 415, 430 or 445 nm from every start in fifteen to eighteen experiments of twenty, against eighteen for a fit started at the truth. The prediction was that a low band would be lost from high starts to the macula's flank. The start barely matters with two sessions, and a lost band does go somewhere — but a band at 415 or 430 goes to lens age, three to five years of it, and only a band at 445 goes to the macula. Every loss is a worse fit than the session's best, so eight starts find the band as often as the truth does. With one session the start decides.
Knowing the macula's density frees two sessions, not the line on its peak
Fitted with six numbers, an older observer's colour matches cannot fully split a lens band at 445 nm from a macula whose peak has moved: their correlation stays above 0.78 under every third session tried. The proposal was to measure the macular pigment's density from outside the matches, leaving five numbers, and the prediction was that a line on the macula's peak would then split the pair below 0.6 while two plain sessions stayed near 0.8. It runs the other way. With the density known exactly, two sessions fall from 0.83 to 0.62 and the line at 465 nm only from 0.86 to 0.74. The density was the road the band and the peak traded along — correlated with each at about −0.75 in two sessions' fit — and the designs that had already narrowed that road gain least from closing it. A realistic outside measurement closes almost none of it: the matches already know the density to 0.027, so a flicker measurement good to 0.05 moves the correlation by three hundredths. And far from the macula, at 415 nm, a known density binds the band to the peak more tightly than before.
A density a tenth wrong costs the band more than fitting it
An older observer's colour matches carry a lens band and a macula that can trade against each other, and fixing the macular pigment's density from an outside measurement breaks much of that trade when the density is right. A flicker measurement and a colour match average the pigment over different fields, so the fixed density can be wrong by a tenth or more, and the prediction was that a tenth too high takes about a third of a standard error off a band at 445 nm and moves the macula's peak by under half a nanometre. It takes 1.4 standard errors off the band and moves the peak 1.25 nm short. At 415 nm the same error pushes the band the other way, up by 2.4 standard errors, and runs its fitted centre 5.6 nm shorter and the lens's age three years younger. Bias and error together, a density fixed a tenth wrong gives the band at 445 nm a larger error than leaving the density free; the break-even is about eight per cent. Given as a measurement with its own standard error of 0.03 instead of fixed, the same wrong density biases the band by under half its error.
A wrong density shifts every experiment alike near the macula
Read from the expected matches, a macular density fixed a tenth too high lowers an older observer's lens band at 445 nm by 1.4 of its standard errors and raises a band at 415 nm by 2.4. Real experiments carry noise, and the prediction was that their fits scatter about those biases with the fixed fit's own error, so that a tenth's mistake puts the band beyond twice its error in about a third of experiments at 445 nm and two thirds at 415. Twenty simulated experiments per case, each fitted with the density free and held at 0.9, 1 and 1.1 of its truth, give five of twenty at 445 nm and sixteen at 415 under two sessions — eight and eighteen with a line on the macula's peak. Near the macula the bias is a rigid shift: every experiment moves by the first-order amount to within a tenth of a standard error. Far from it the bias is lopsided — up by 0.058 for a density too high, down by 0.032 for one too low — and a density too low erases the band altogether in one experiment of twenty.
One session has a second valley
Every essay on older observers since the second session has read its fitted lens bands and macula shifts from one census: nine simulated observers, three designs, twenty noisy experiments each, every fit a damped descent from two starts. Two of forty experiments refitted in the last essay found a better fit than the census had. The prediction was that the census misses one fit in twenty, almost all where the band is small, and that the misses change no count it reported by more than a few hundredths. Refitted from three more starts, 66 of its 540 experiments have a better fit — 45 of 180 under one session, 9 and 12 under two and three. Sixty of the 66 better fits move the macula's peak more than two nanometres further short, most shrinking the band, and 31 lie lower by under one unit of χ²: a second valley, nearly level with the first. Two sessions' counts stand to within one or two experiments. One session's do not: with the best fits an unmoved macula is reported moved in eight experiments of twenty, where the census said one.
A bound on the macula trades false moves for hidden ones
Fitted thoroughly, one session of an older observer's colour matches finds a second valley in a quarter of its experiments — the macula's peak moved ten or more nanometres from the model's, where no real macula sits — and reports a moved macula where there is none in up to eight experiments of twenty. The prediction was that holding the macula's shift within six nanometres either way, the range real pigment mixtures span, restores every observer's one-session counts to within two of the census's and leaves about one fit in four pressed against the bound. The false moves vanish: an unmoved macula is reported moved in one, two and one experiments of twenty for the three bands, against eight, six and two unbounded. Seven of nine observers keep their count of moved maculas within two of the census's. But only one fit in six ends on the bound, and beside the band at 445 nm the bound hides real moves: a macula truly three nanometres short is found in three experiments of twenty, where the census found seven. Two sessions barely notice the bound.
A soft prior on the macula frees the lens band
One session of an older observer's colour matches, fitted thoroughly, can drift into a valley where the macula's peak sits ten or more nanometres from any real eye's, and a hard bound at ±6 nm removes those false moves at the cost of hiding some real ones — beside a lens band at 445 nm, a macula truly three nanometres short is found in three experiments of twenty where the census found seven. The prediction was that a Gaussian prior four nanometres wide, which lets a fit go further when the matches insist, keeps the false moves away and restores those real ones. It keeps the false moves away — none, one and one for the three bands. It does not restore the real moves: it finds them as seldom as the bound or more seldom, two of twenty beside 445 nm, because it pulls every fitted shift towards nought, to a mean of 1.2 to 1.9 nanometres for moves of three. What it buys instead is the lens band. With the macula held near the standard, the band beside it is found in ten to twelve experiments of twenty, where the census found three to seven.
A wider prior gives the moves back by spending the band
One session of an older observer's colour matches, fitted under a Gaussian prior four nanometres wide on the macula's peak shift, finds the lens band beside the macula in ten to twelve experiments of twenty and real three-nanometre moves of the macula as seldom as a hard bound does. The prediction was that a prior six nanometres wide keeps the false moves at two or fewer, finds the real moves within two of the bound's counts and keeps two thirds of the band's gain, and that at eight the far valley reopens at 415 nm. Three parts hold. The fourth fails: six nanometres keeps 55 per cent of the band's gain. Read across the widths the prior traces one trade — 14 real moves and 44 bands at four nanometres, 22 and 34 at six, 25 and 25 at eight, against the unconstrained fit's 27 and 22 — and the hard bound, at 19 and 20, is worse than six nanometres on both.
A second session leaves the prior one job
Under one session of an older observer's colour matches, a prior on the macular pigment's peak shift trades the lens band against real moves of the macula, six nanometres wide at the knee of the trade. Two sessions already find the band in twelve to twenty experiments of twenty and real three-nanometre moves in twelve to eighteen, and still report an unmoved macula moved in two to three. The prediction was that the six-nanometre prior, applied to two sessions, removes those false moves and costs nothing else. It removes none of them — two, two and none remain, about the rate at which a test at twice the standard error calls a move by chance. It costs nothing at five observers of six. Beside 415 nm, with the macula moved short, it finds four fewer moves: three of the best fits there were in the far valley, eight to twelve nanometres short, and counted as moves because their sign was right. With two sessions the far valley is the prior's only remaining job.
A third session finds the edge band and counts bands misplaced
Two sessions of colour matches find an older observer's lens band in eighteen to twenty experiments of twenty at every place but one: a band at 415 nm, beside the lens's own short-wave edge, found in twelve. The prediction was that a third session — a phosphor LED set against a lamp with a cyan line — finds it in at least seventeen, and that the experiments losing it under two sessions fit the lens three or more years old. Three sessions find it in eighteen, and every loss under two did fit the lens older, but by under three years in five of eight. The count hid something else. It credits a band wherever a fit puts it, and up to twelve of 180 fits put it sixty to eighty nanometres from its place, on the macula's long flank. With three sessions the six-nanometre prior no longer closes that valley.
A band held near the lens closes the valley the prior could not
Three sessions of colour matches find an older observer's lens band beside the lens's own edge as predicted, but twelve of 180 fits place the band sixty to eighty nanometres away on the macula's long flank, each with the macula fitted far short — a valley the six-nanometre prior on the macula's shift no longer closes. The prediction was that holding the band's centre to 400–460 nm, where a lens band can be, empties that valley, finds the 415 nm band with the macula short in at least eighteen experiments, and raises the moves found beside 430 nm from nine to twelve. The first two hold: no fit is left in the valley, and the band is found in nineteen. The third does not: 430 nm stays at ten. And the valley turns out to have been nearly level with the truth — holding the band costs ten of the twelve fits under four units of the fit's chi-squared, and every one's macula comes home.
Named alongside it
The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.
IdentifiabilityLens yellowingMacular pigmentModelling assumptionLeast-squaresIndividual variationRodsChromatic adaptationMeasurement uncertaintyResidualTest setColour difference